There are nearly 3000 independently-produced commercials online. There are a lot of really really awful commercials here. I have a chance against the awful ones. But I've seen about 20 that really blew me away. So I don't know what chance I really have. If I had to guess it falls somewhere between 1 in 3000 and 1 in 20. Either way, not great odds. Anyway, here's hoping for the best!
You can see the commercial here: